American presidential election

 American presidential election

The Republican primaries have only just begun, yet for Donald Trump, the 2024 presidential nomination seems a done deal. The American media are less concerned about his score on Super Tuesday than about the choice of potential Vice-President of the United States.

Prediction in American politics is always a risky business. So let's start with the obvious one: Mike Pence has a near-zero chance of being Donald Trump's running mate, the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination in November. After four years of loyal service between 2016 and 2020, on January 6, 2021, the former Republican vice-president did not oppose the certification of Joe Biden's victory. By opposing Donald Trump head-on, he made it possible, on that day marked by the violent assault on the Capitol, for American democratic institutions to endure. But he also committed the most serious crime in his boss's eyes: a lack of loyalty.

For Donald Trump's next running mate will have to be loyal, just like his entire cabinet. The billionaire, indicted in several cases by the US federal justice system, will have every interest in choosing a vice-president who, in the event of conviction and impeachment, would succeed him and agree to pardon him.

Asked recently on Fox News about the main quality sought in a running mate, Donald Trump gave a more politically correct answer. "It has to be someone capable of being a good president. I mean, you always have to think about that because, you know, an emergency... it can happen, right? No matter who you are, it can happen. So that's the main criteria." On January 21, again on Fox News, he assured that the choice of "VP" would not influence the outcome of the presidential election in any case.

And yet, in a tight race, every single vote counts. A loyal and competent profile would not be enough. Ideally, it would also complement the presidential ticket. This means attracting a sufficient number of moderates, women, African-Americans and Hispanics to the Republican camp... in short, those whom Donald Trump, on his own, has a harder time convincing.

A dozen names are in circulation. It's unlikely that an announcement will be made in the short term - candidates usually wait until the summer and the approach of the party's national convention to unveil their choice. But with Donald Trump's victory in the Republican primaries no longer in any doubt, despite the number of ballots remaining, it's not out of the question that the name of his running mate will be known sooner rather than later. In recent weeks, watching the ballet of personalities taking to the stage in support of their champion has been enough to give us an idea of the aspiring candidates.